HANDY OFF THE BENCH: Sonny Bill Williams scored three tries as a replacement at RWC 2011
LONDON, 16 Sept – Replacements are having an increasing impact in Rugby World Cups, analysis of the previous tournaments has shown.
Since the rules changed in 1996 to accommodate tactical changes rather than those forced by injury, the number of appearances by replacements has increased, as has their effectiveness.
The data also suggests that 2003 was the watershed moment for the use of replacements: while the rules changed in 1996 and RWC 1999 saw a jump in the numbers used, RWC 2003 saw the biggest jump in proportion of points scored, as coaches adapted to make best use of their bench.
In RWC 1995, replacements made 3.1 appearances per match (across both teams) but by RWC 1999 that had increased to 9.7 appearances per match, as coaches made full use of the change to the law governing substitutes. The last tournament saw 11.9 substitutes used per game, up slightly on RWC 2007.
The bench is not just being used more; it is becoming a more effective part of a coach’s armoury as well.
In RWC 1987 only 8.4% of points scored per game were scored by substitutes. By RWC 2003 that had increased to 15.3% of points and in the last tournament, just over 19% of points were scored per game by replacements.
Averaged across the 48 games of 2011, that equates to just over 9 points per match. The overall average of points per game has decreased since 2003 as well, so replacements are clearly having a proportionally greater impact.
In 2011, Argentina overturned a six-point deficit against Scotland when Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino replaced Rodriguez Gurruchage and scored a try with eight minutes left in the game.
The number of tries scored has generally increased as well. While fewer than one try per game was scored by substitutes between 1987 and 1999, in 2003 replacements averaged over one try per game. The impact peaked in 2007, when players coming off the bench scored just over 24% of all tries.
The most points scored by a substitute in one tournament was 15, when Sonny Bill Williams crossed the line three times having come off the bench for New Zealand in 2011.
The two best performances across multiple World Cups were by Wales’ Stephen Jones and Fiji’s Nicky Little. Jones scored 21 points across six replacement appearances in four World Cups, between 1999 and 2011. Little scored 19 points across four games off the bench in 1999, 2003, and 2011. He started every one of his RWC 2007 matches.
In 1877, rugby’s laws changed and the number of starting players dropped from 20 to 15. In RWC 2015, with the introduction of an eighth possible replacement, this trend may increase further.
RNS as/sg/ej